Machine Learning-based Prediction of Preterm Birth Using Genetic Data

Abstract

The leading cause of mortality and morbidity in children under the age of 5 is preterm birth. The timing of birth is influenced by both genetic and environmental factors, but the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood, making its prediction difficult. In this study, we investigated the potential of using machine learning models to predict preterm birth based on genetic data from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa). We trained and evaluated several classification algorithms on individual-level genetic data from over 15,000 mothers and children. Our results indicate that the predictive capacity of maternal gestational duration-associated loci for preterm birth is limited, with the highest AUC values around 0.57. Additionally, incorporating more SNPs within the associated loci did not improve prediction performance. As expected, the contribution of the maternal genome to preterm birth prediction was found to be larger than that of the fetal genome. Overall, our findings suggest that while genetic testing provides some information about an individuals risk for preterm birth, further research incorporating additional factors is necessary to enhance predictability.