Spatial overlap of sea ice-associated predators and prey in western Hudson Bay

Abstract

Spatio-temporal distribution of species shapes community structure and ecosystem function, yet the mechanisms driving biological hotspots remain unclear in dynamic environments like sea ice. We computed Getis-Ord (Gi*) hotspots based on four years of direct and indirect observations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus), Arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus), ringed seals (Pusa hispida), and bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus) in western Hudson Bay, to identify spatial clustering and assess spatial relationships among these ice-associated species. We further mapped distribution hotspots of bear-hunting signs to examine predator-prey and intraguild relationships. Polar bears and bearded seals primarily used offshore areas, while Arctic foxes concentrated their activity on nearshore ice. Ringed seal lairs were distributed throughout the study area but mostly hauled out on nearshore landfast ice. The polar bear hotspot overlapped extensively ([30% - 49%]) with those of the three other species, and Arctic foxes had high overlap (50%) with ringed seals. In contrast, bearded seals and ringed seals had low overlap (18%), reflecting their different habitat preferences. Understanding current patterns in ice-associated species distributions and relationships is crucial to inform conservation actions and for predicting direct and indirect effects of Arctic warming. Our results help identify key ecological areas on sea ice and demonstrate how systematic collection of incidental observations can be combined to generate valuable ecological insights at low cost. Key-words: Hotspot analysis, Predator-prey interactions, Commensalism, sea ice, Ursus maritimus, Vulpes lagopus, Pusa hispida, Erignathus barbatus