Predicting the long-term impact of AI assistants on collective intelligence

Abstract

Artificial intelligence (AI) assistants can improve individual performance but may weaken unaided performance and limit interest diversity, raising questions about their long-term effects on collective intelligence (CI). Here, we consider an evolutionary model in which individuals predict, consult AI, and imitate better-performing peers. Classic reward structures that promote CI without AI can fail under Chatbot AI, whose predictions depend on users' interests, by reducing interest diversity or propagating bias. Directly rewarding or penalizing AI use does not reliably mitigate these effects. Instead, a balanced incentive that preserves minority expertise and rewards collective contributions can promote CI, but an additional incentive is needed to restore unaided collective accuracy. Our framework offers an explanation for emerging evidence of AI's societal impact and clarifies its long-term implications.