Decadal climate-driven decoupling between gross primary productivity and tree growth in Mediterranean forests

Abstract

Mediterranean forests are becoming increasingly vulnerable under climate change, as the growing frequency and intensity of droughts and heatwaves amplify physiological stress, reduce productivity, and heighten the risk of large-scale disturbances. Yet vegetation activity trends, as revealed by remote sensing, may obscure divergent responses between photosynthetic activity and growth, a critical early warning of forest vulnerability. Therefore, the long-term relationship between photosynthesis and tree growth remains poorly understood at regional scales, especially in Mediterranean areas. To address this challenge, we applied a mechanistic, process-based forest ecosystem model across approximately 2,400 km{superscript 2} of Mediterranean forests in southern Italy, encompassing a heterogeneous landscape characterized by diverse stand structures and species dominance. This framework enabled us to explicitly trace carbon fluxes from gross primary productivity (GPP) through allocation processes to average tree growth. By mean of a factorial approach, we identify over extended areas an emergent spatial pattern of divergence of summer GPP and radial tree growth amplified in space and time by the climate variability of the last two decades and shaped by forest legacy. Our findings reveal also that canopy-level greening can mask structural vulnerability and previsual decline across Mediterranean forests. Data show as an apparent long-term trend in photosynthesis decline during summer, not necessarily translates to tree growth decline. Improving our ability to determine if, where and when a key change in forest behaviour will occurs, remains essential for designing effective restoration measure and anticipating tipping points in forest resilience under accelerating climate change.