Abundance redistribution increases predator-prey interaction potentials among North American birds

Abstract

Species are dramatically shifting their geographical ranges, yet the consequences of these spatial redistributions on species interactions have not been examined at broad spatial and temporal scales. Here, we investigate how the redistribution of species abundance over the past 50 years affects the potential for predator-prey interactions among North American birds. We first predict potential predator-prey interactions based on existing data and functional traits, then construct a novel, abundance-weighted metric of interaction potential for each pair of predator and prey in local communities. Across North America, the potential for predator-prey interactions has been increasing over time. We further show that this widespread increasing trend in interaction potentials is mostly driven by higher abundances of predator species. The spatial redistributions of predators and prey lead to turnover of interactions within local communities, and the turnover is less associated with changes in climate but more associated with human-induced land use changes. Our novel approach and results highlight the importance of considering traits, abundance, and species interactions - including known and potential interactions - when studying the ecological consequences of species range shifts.