Transient population dynamics drive the spread of invasive wild pigs in North America

Abstract

Invasion of nonindigenous species is considered one of the most urgent problems affecting native ecosystems and agricultural systems. Mechanistic models that account for short-term population dynamics can improve prediction because they incorporate differing demographic processes that link the environmental conditions of a spatial location explicitly with the invasion process. Yet short-term population dynamics are rarely accounted for in spatial models of invasive species spread. Accounting for transient population dynamics, we predict the population growth rate and establishment probability of wild pigs following introduction into any location in North America. We compared predicted population growth rate with observed geographic rates of spread and found significant relationships between the annual rate of spread and population growth rates. We used geospatial data on the distribution of mast producing tree species (a principle forage resource of wild pigs) and agricultural crops that can replace mast in their diets to predict population dynamics using transient population simulations. We simulated populations under different initial population sizes (i.e. number of introduced individuals, often termed propagule size) and for different amounts of time following introduction. By varying the initial population size and simulation time, we were able to identify areas in North America with high probability for establishment of wild pigs if introduced. Our findings can be used to inform surveillance and removal efforts to reduce the potential for establishment and spread of wild pigs.