Long-term forest monitoring unravels constant mortality rise in European forests

Abstract

European forests are an important source for timber production, human welfare, income, protection and biodiversity. During the last two decades, Europe has experienced a number of droughts which were exceptionally within the last 500 years both in terms of duration and intensity and these droughts seem to left remarkable imprints in the mortality dynamics of European forests. However, systematic observations on tree decline with emphasis on single species together with high-resolution drought data has been scarce so far so that deeper insights into mortality dynamics and drought occurrence is still limiting our understanding at continental scale. Here we make use of the ICP Forest crown defoliation dataset, permitting us to retrospectively monitor tree mortality for four major conifers, two major broadleaves as well as a pooled dataset of nearly all minor tree species in Europe. In total, we analysed more than 3 million observations gathered during the last 25 years and employed a high-resolution drought index which is able to assess soil moisture anomaly based on a hydrological water-balance and runoff model every ten days globally. We found significant overall and species-specific increasing trends in mortality rates accompanied by decreasing soil moisture. A generalized linear model identified previous-year soil moisture anomaly as the most important driver of mortality patterns in European forests. Significant interactions appeared between previous-year soil moisture and stand water regime in conifers, strongly suggesting that conifers growing at productive sites are more vulnerable under drought. We conclude that mortality patterns in European forests are currently reaching a concerning upward trend which could be further accelerated by global change-type droughts. Key messageForest mortality has significantly increased over the last 25 years and remained above the long-term mean since 2012.