Quantifying uncertainty in drift diffusion models of decision making under temporal dependence and parameter variability

Abstract

Decision-making behavior changes over time, exhibiting temporal correlation and nonstationarity. Existing drift diffusion model (DDM) fitting methods either do not provide uncertainty quantification for parameter estimates, or rely on restrictive assumptions that decisions are independent and that parameters remain constant over time, potentially underestimating uncertainty. To address these limitations, we propose a computationally efficient method for estimating analytic uncertainties in DDM parameters that are robust to temporal dependence and unmodeled parameter variability, while explicitly modeling nonstationary variability through covariates. We apply this method to rat decision-making in a two-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) visual task, revealing dynamic decision-making states across multiple timescales. A Python implementation of the method is provided.