Forward time-series causal inference based on forest weights and conditional dependence

Abstract

Unveiling directional causality in complex, high-dimensional dynamical systems remains a fundamental challenge. Conventional nonparametric approaches, such as Convergent Cross Mapping, require computationally intensive surrogate tests and frequently yield false-positive detections under strong coupling due to generalized synchronization. Here, we present F-CODEC (Forest-weighted Conditional Dependence Coefficient), a forward-looking causal discovery framework integrating generalized random forests with adaptive rank conditioning. Nonparametrically conditioning on the target variable's intrinsic delay coordinates systematically neutralizes shared manifold representations, suppressing false positives without surrogate data. Furthermore, an analytical time-series threshold allows instant, rigorous hypothesis testing directly from raw observations. We demonstrate F-CODEC's resilience against generalized synchronization and high-dimensional noise across canonical chaotic benchmarks and multi-species network motifs. Applying F-CODEC to historical lynx-hare cycles resolves delayed trophic forcing, while in-situ IoT honeybee monitoring captures real-time microclimate-acoustic causal surges preceding colony-level behavioral events. F-CODEC establishes a practical, scalable, and surrogate-free tool for causal discovery in nonlinear dynamical systems.