DNA methylation reveals evolved buffering responses to climate-driven sex ratio skew in sea turtles

Abstract

Species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), including all sea turtles which produce females at warmer temperatures, face projections of demographic collapse under climate-driven sex ratio skews. However, the accuracy of such predictions remains uncertain, as current models rely heavily on indirect sex ratio proxies due to the lack of a scalable, non-invasive method for sexing hatchlings. Through whole methylome sequencing, we identified 777 sex-associated DNA methylation markers from blood samples of sex-verified loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) hatchlings incubated at three controlled temperatures. Applying these markers to a large-scale field experiment showed that classic nest temperature-based models overestimated female production by an average of up to 60.2%, suggesting the presence of evolved buffering mechanisms against thermal effects on sex determination. Our findings highlight the need to revise climate-driven sex ratio forecasts with empirical field data, such as methylation-based assessments, to better understand and safeguard the hidden resilience of vulnerable TSD species.