Individual Variation in Risky Decisions Is Related to Age and Gender but not to Mental Health Symptoms

Abstract

Risky decisions involve choosing between options where the outcomes are uncertain. Cognitive tasks such as the CANTAB Cambridge Gamble Task (CGT) have revealed that patients with depression make more conservative decisions, but the mechanisms of choice evaluation underlying such decisions, and how they lead to the observed differences in depression, remain unknown. To test this, we used a computational modelling approach in a broad general-population sample (N = 753) who performed the CANTAB CGT and completed questionnaires assessing symptoms of mental illness, including depression. We fit five different computational models to the data, including two novel ones, and found that a novel model that uses an inverse power function in the loss domain (contrary to standard Prospect Theory accounts), and is influenced by the probabilities but not the magnitudes of different outcomes, captures the characteristics of our dataset very well. Surprisingly, model parameters were not significantly associated with any mental health questionnaire scores, including depression scales; but they were related to demographic variables, particularly age, with stronger associations than typical model-agnostic task measures. This study showcases a new methodology to analyse data from CANTAB CGT, describes a noteworthy null finding with respect to mental health symptoms, and demonstrates the added precision that a computational approach can offer.