REVEALING COVID-19 TRANSMISSION BY SARS-CoV-2 GENOME SEQUENCING AND AGENT BASED MODELLING
R. J. Rockett, A. Arnott, C. Lam, R. Sadsad, V. Timms, K.-A. Gray, J.-S. Eden, S. L. Chang, M. Gall, J. Draper, E. Sim, N. L. Bachmann, I. Carter, K. Basile, R. Byun, M. V. O Sullivan, S. C.-A. Chen, S. Maddocks, T. C. Sorrell, D. E. Dwyer, E. C. Holmes, J. Kok, M. Prokopenko, V. Sintchenko
Abstract
Community transmission of the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is a major public health concern that remains difficult to assess. We present a genomic survey of SARS-CoV-2 from a during the first 10 weeks of COVID-19 activity in New South Wales, Australia. Transmission events were monitored prospectively during the critical period of implementation of national control measures. SARS-CoV-2 genomes were sequenced from 209 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 infection between January and March 2020. Only a quarter of cases appeared to be locally acquired and genomic-based estimates of local transmission rates were concordant with predictions from a computational agent-based model. This convergent assessment indicates that genome sequencing provides key information to inform public health action and has improved our understanding of the COVID-19 evolution from outbreak to epidemic.
02 /Specification & Classification
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