Evolutionary trade-offs between heat and cold tolerance limit responses to fluctuating climates

Abstract

The evolutionary potential of species to cope with short-term temperature fluctuations during reproduction is critical to predicting responses to future climate change. Despite this, vertebrate research has focused on reproduction under high or low temperatures in relatively stable temperate climates. Here, we characterize the genetic basis of reproductive thermal tolerance to temperature fluctuations in the ostrich that lives in tropical and sub-tropical Africa. Both heat and cold tolerance are under selection and heritable, indicating that evolutionary responses to mean temperature change are possible. However, a negative, genetic correlation between heat and cold tolerance limits the potential for adaptation to fluctuating temperatures. Genetic constraints between heat and cold tolerance appears a crucial, yet underappreciated, factor influencing responses to climate change. One-sentence summaryReproductive success in fluctuating climates is constrained by a negative genetic correlation between heat and cold tolerance