Chronumental: time tree estimation from very large phylogenies

Abstract

Phylogenetic trees are an important tool for interpreting sequenced genomes, and their interrelationships. Estimating the date associated with each node of such a phylogeny creates a "time tree", which can be especially useful for visualising and analysing evolution of organisms such as viruses. Several tools have been developed for time-tree estimation, but the sequencing explosion in response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has created phylogenies so large as to prevent the application of these previous approaches to full datasets. Here we introduce Chronumental, a tool that can rapidly infer time trees from phylogenies featuring large numbers of nodes. Chronumental uses stochastic gradient descent to identify lengths of time for tree branches which maximise the evidence lower bound under a probabilistic model, implemented in a framework which can be compiled into XLA for rapid computation. We show that Chronumental scales to phylogenies featuring millions of nodes, with chronological predictions made in minutes, and is able to accurately predict the dates of nodes for which it is not provided with metadata.