Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects by balancing heterogeneity and fitness

Abstract

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is an important problem in many medical and biological applications since treatments may have different effects on the prognoses of different patients. Recently, several recursive partitioning methods have been proposed to identify the subgroups that with different responds to a treatment, and they rely on a fitness criterion to minimize the error between the estimated treatment effects and the unobservable true effects. In this paper, we propose that a heterogeneity criterion, which maximizes the differences of treatment effects among the subgroups, also needs to be considered. Moreover, we show that better performances can be achieved when the fitness and the heterogeneous criteria are considered simultaneously. Selecting the optimal splitting points then becomes a multi-objective problem; however, a solution that achieves optimal in both aspects are often not available. To solve this problem, we propose a multi-objective splitting procedure to balance both criteria. The proposed procedure is computationally efficient and fits naturally into the existing recursive partitioning framework. Experimental results show that the proposed multi-objective approach performs consistently better than existing ones.\n\nAuthor summaryThe effects of a treatment are often not the same for different individuals with different gene expressions. Learning to predict the heterogeneous treatment effects from clinical and expression data is an important step towards personalized medical treatment. Existing computational methods are not ideal for the task because they do not address the interpretability of the model and do not consider the limited sample sizes in biological and medical applications. Our method addresses these issues and achieves superior performance in analyzing the treatment effects of radiotherapy on breast cancer patients.