Comparing Livestock Mobility-Informed Strategies for Peste des Petits Ruminants Control in Nigeria: The Central Role of the Network Backbone

Abstract

Animal mobility is central to pastoral livelihoods and regional trade in West Africa, but it also facilitates the spread of transboundary animal diseases such as Peste des petits ruminants (PPR). In Nigeria, PPR outbreaks recur regularly, yet surveillance and control remain limited in the absence of routine animal-movement tracking. Here, we assess and compare movement-informed control options for PPR using a reconstructed livestock mobility network from a one-time market survey conducted in three northern Nigerian states. We simulate transmission on this network and evaluate three intervention strategies: (i) targeting vulnerable villages, (ii) targeting the links that connect movement communities, and (iii) targeting villages belonging to the network backbone. Across scenarios, backbone-based targeting consistently produced the largest reductions in network connectivity and epidemic outcomes, outperforming strategies focused on vulnerable nodes or inter-community links. These results suggest that backbone-informed control could provide a practical, resource-efficient pathway to strengthen PPR control in settings where routine movement data are scarce.