Temporal-deviation-driven community detection uncovers early-warning signals for critical transitions in complex diseases

Abstract

Early detection of critical transitions in complex diseases is crucial for timely clinical intervention. However, as patients often provide only a single snapshot, identifying sample-specific early-warning signals (EWS) from a dynamical evolution perspective remains challenging, coupled with high-dimensional noise amplification. Here, we present TD-COM, a framework for detecting personalized EWS of critical transitions via single-sample community detection. By constructing a temporal perturbation map STDN, TD-COM captures latent dynamical perturbations inferred from static individual profiles. Synergizing these temporaldeviation signals with static topological features, TD-COM implements a multilevel node filtering strategy during community detection, effectively suppressing single-sample noise. Validated on hour-scale, multi-year, and multi-decade transcriptomic data, TD-COM robustly detects critical states preceding clinical deterioration and uncovers their underlying molecular mechanisms. Comparative experiments demonstrate that TD-COM outperforms existing methods in accuracy and topological robustness. Thus, TD-COM provides a generalizable framework for personalized early warning of complex diseases, particularly when longitudinal sampling is infeasible.