Temperature triggers provide quantitative predictions of multi-species fish spawning peaks

Abstract

We find a startling correlation (Pearson {rho} > 0.97) between a single event in daily sea surface temperatures each spring, and peak fish egg abundance measurements the following summer, in 7 years of approximately weekly fish egg abundance data collected at Scripps Pier in La Jolla California. Even more surprising is that this event-based result persists despite the large and variable number of fish species involved (up to 46), and the large and variable time interval between trigger and response (up to ~3 months). To mitigate against potential over-fitting, we make a true out-of-sample prediction for the peak summer egg abundance that will be observed at Scripps Pier this year.