Annals of Financial EconomicsScientific Communication & EducationPeer-reviewed journal article
Forecasting virus diffusion with simple Bayesian forecast combination
Abstract
There are various diffusion models for S shaped processes like virus diffusion and these models are typically not nested. In this note it is proposed to combine the forecasts using a simple Bayesian forecast combination algorithm. An illustration to daily data on cumulative Covid-19 cases in the Netherlands shows the ease of use of the algorithm and the accuracy of the thus combined forecasts.
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