Beyond climatic drought indices : an hydraulic approach to quantifying forest water stress

Abstract

The article introduces a new Forest Stress Index (ISF) based on a plant hydraulic modelling approach rather than classical climatic drought indices. Unlike other index like scPDSI or SPEI, ISF is grounded in xylem embolism dynamics simulated with the mechanistic SurEau model. The goal is to better link climatic anomalies to tree physiological functioning and mortality risk. ISF is defined using a locally adapted ideotype characterized by an optimal P50 value under a reference hydraulic functioning threshold. Simulations are performed across Europe and France using multiple climate datasets. The index is robust to model parameterization choices and assumptions about plant functional traits. Results show strong spatial and temporal consistency and significant correlations with SPEI and scPDSI. However, ISF more strongly highlights extreme drought years and exhibits a more skewed distribution. Future projections under SSP5-8.5 indicate a widespread increase in hydraulic stress with strong regional contrasts. Overall, ISF provides a mechanistic and complementary drought indicator more directly linked to forest mortality processes.