Patterns and correlates of invasive alien plant richness in China's abandoned croplands

Abstract

Cropland abandonment is a widespread socio-ecological transition that can generate heterogeneous ecological outcomes, including opportunities for vegetation recovery as well as the accumulation of invasive alien plants (IAPs). Understanding broad-scale correlates of IAP richness in abandoned croplands is challenging because published studies differ in sampling design, spatial extent, and reporting detail. To provide an exploratory national-scale synthesis, we compiled literature-derived occurrence records of 57 IAP species reported from abandoned croplands across China and examined study-level recorded richness using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) with province as a random effect. Fourteen socio-economic and environmental predictors were screened for multicollinearity and standardized, and the number of Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) was included as a proxy for potential sampling-effort variation. Asteraceae accounted for 43.9% of recorded species, and more than 70% of taxa were classified as high-risk invaders (Levels 1-2). Recorded richness exhibited a pronounced southeast-northwest gradient, with higher values in economically developed coastal provinces. In the exploratory GLMM, regional GDP (IRR = 1.67, p < 0.05) and mean annual temperature (IRR = 1.49, p < 0.05) were positively associated with recorded richness, whereas other environmental, accessibility, soil, and sampling-effort variables showed no detectable associations. Model diagnostics indicated no evidence of overdispersion, zero inflation, or residual spatial autocorrelation. Given the heterogeneous nature of literature-derived data and the small number of study units, these results should be interpreted as broad-scale correlational patterns rather than causal drivers. The findings highlight regional socio-economic context and climatic conditions as key correlates of recorded IAP richness in abandoned croplands and provide an initial baseline for understanding invasion patterns in post-agricultural landscapes undergoing rapid land-use transitions..