Predicting the distributions of Pouteria adolfi-friederici and Prunus africana iconic tree species under current and future climate change scenarios in Ethiopia

Abstract

The distributions of the potential adaptive ranges of iconic plant species are not yet fully known especially in regions such as Ethiopia where high climatic variability and vegetation types are found. This study was undertaken to predict the distributions of the potential suitable habitats of Pouteria adolfi-friederici and Prunus africana tree species under the current and two future climate scenarios (i.e., RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in 2050 and 2070) using MaxEnt software (version: 3.4.4.). Eleven less correlated environmental variables (r<0.7) were identified and used to make the prediction models. Elevational shifts of the highly suitable habitats, effects of elevation, solar radiation and topographic position in relation to the current and future climatic scenarios on the habitats were statistically analyzed using independent t-test and linear model. Under all climate scenarios, we found a decrease in the proportion of areas of highly suitable habitats for both study species. High potentials of suitable habitats for Pouteria adolfi-friederici are predicted to be confined to southwest, west central and south parts of Ethiopia in fragmented moist afromontane forest patches, while it is in the southwest and west central parts of Ethiopia for Prunus africana. On basis of vegetation types of the country, potential suitable habitats for Pouteria adolfi-friederici are predicted to occur in moist evergreen forest, dry evergreen forest and grassland complex and Combretum-Terminalia woodland vegetation types. Whereas, moist evergreen forest, dry evergreen forest and grassland complex and riverine vegetation types are predicted to comprise potential suitable habitats for Prunus africana, showing considerable spatial dynamics. Overall, our results suggest that the strategies deem to design biodiversity conservation should take into account the dynamics of the suitable niches of different species under different future climate scenarios.