Climate change is predicted to disrupt patterns of local adaptation in wild and cultivated maize

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most important threats to biodiversity and crop sustainability. The impact of climate change is often evaluated on the basis of expected changes in species geographical distributions. Genomic diversity, local adaptation, and migration are seldom integrated into projections of species responses to climate change. Here we predict that climate change will impact populations of two wild relatives of maize, the teosintes Zea mays ssp. mexicana and Z. mays ssp. parviglumis, by altering patterns of local adaptation and decreasing migration probabilities. These alterations appear to be geographically heterogeneous across populations, suggesting that the possible impacts of climate change will vary considerably among populations. This in spite that most populations exhibit high levels of genetic diversity and are predicted to lie within future suitable areas. The heterogeneous patterns of local adaptation uncovered in teosintes are also evident across maize landraces, which suggests that climate change may give way to future maladaptation of several landraces within currently cultivated areas, possibly leading to increased chances of production shocks under increased temperatures. The predicted alterations to habitat distribution, migration potential, and patterns of local adaptation in wild and cultivated maize, raises a red flag for the future of populations. This underscores the need for continued integration of agronomical practices, genomic data, and climate models to better understand the impacts of a rapidly changing climate on cultivated and wild species.