Environmental and biotic drivers of Aedes albopictus spatiotemporal distribution in the Argentina-Brasil-Paraguay subtropical triple border: The key role of periurban and disturbed wild environments

Abstract

There is empirical evidence that biophysical factors determine the spatio-temporal distribution of mosquito vectors, and identifying the variables that shape their ecology allows decision-makers to design effective surveillance and control strategies. This study evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of Aedes albopictus in relation to environmental and biotic variables in the Iguazu Department, Misiones Province, Argentina, within the tri-border region shared with Brazil and Paraguay. Environmental characterization integrated field data and remotely sensed biophysical variables, and vector occurrence was analyzed at micro- and meso-spatial scales using generalized linear mixed models. Eleven sampling sessions were conducted between April 2019 and February 2020 at 81 sites representing urban, periurban, and wild environments. A total of 1,614 Ae. albopictus and 4,358 Ae. aegypti specimens were identified. Rainfall, minimum temperature, exposure days, and land cover were the main predictors of Ae. albopictus presence, showing nonlinear responses to precipitation and vegetation. The selected model explained 67% of the variance. The species exhibited clear spatiotemporal stratification, with periurban and disturbed wild areas functioning as ecotones favorable to its establishment. These findings provide key insights to guide preventive actions and strengthen integrated vector management strategies in the region.