Loss of Adaptive Capacity Drives Climate Vulnerability Across Taxonomic Scales in an Alpine Specialist Species Complex

Abstract

Accelerated warming at high elevations is having a disproportionate impact on alpine species. While assessments of climate vulnerability require quantifying the ecological and evolutionary components of adaptive capacity, such assessments are rare, especially in alpine systems. We leverage recent advances in population and landscape genomics to assess how variation in spatial heterogeneity and population connectivity across alpine systems influences adaptive capacity, using the North American Rosy-Finch species complex as a model system. In doing so, we clarify taxonomic relationships across the complex and identify one new ESU, the Sierra Nevada Rosy-Finch, based on its combined ecological and evolutionary distinctiveness. We then illustrate how combining genomic analyses with ecological data can improve estimates of adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure and ultimately clarify climate vulnerability. Overall, our integrative analyses revealed that more isolated lineages, such as the Sierra Nevada Rosy-Finch, have lower adaptive capacity and face disproportionately high risks from climate change. This work highlights how conservation strategies that account for the multidimensional aspects of adaptive capacity can improve estimates of climate vulnerability.