Recent effective population size of the snowy owl (Bubo scandiacus) tracks historical climate variation

Abstract

Arctic ecosystems are undergoing rapid climate warming, providing an opportunity to examine molecular evolution under environmental stress. Here, we used whole-genome resequencing to assess population structure, genetic diversity, and recent demographic history in the snowy owl (Bubo scandiacus), a highly mobile Arctic apex predator classified as Vulnerable by the IUCN. We analysed genome-wide data from individuals sampled across the species' circumpolar range using a chromosome-level reference genome. Population genomic analyses revealed an absence of detectable population structure, indicating extensive gene flow and near-panmixia across continents. Genome-wide nucleotide diversity was low ({pi}= 2.47 x 10^(-4)), while runs of homozygosity were dominated by short tracts, indicating limited standing genetic variation despite little evidence for recent close inbreeding. Our demographic inference revealed a sustained decline in effective population size over the past ~1,600 years, a pronounced reduction coinciding with the Medieval Warm Period followed by a partial recovery during the subsequent cooler interval. This direct, measurable effect of past climate warming on effective population size raises concerns for the long-term survival of the snowy owl. Our results demonstrate that high connectivity and low levels of recent inbreeding have not necessarily buffered this species against climate-driven demographic erosion of genetic diversity. This study highlights the value of using whole-genome population genomics to inform genomic monitoring and conservation decision-making in rapidly changing environments.