Afrotropical Tree Communities May Have Distinct Responses to Forecasted Climate Change

Abstract

More refined knowledge of how tropical forests respond to changes in the abiotic environment and human disturbance is necessary to mitigating climate change, maintain biodiversity, and preserve ecosystem services. To evaluate the unique response of Afrotropical forests to changes in the abiotic environment and disturbance, we employ species inventories, remotely sensed historic climatic data, and future climate predictions collected from 104 1-ha plots in the central African country of Gabon. We forecast a 3 - 8% decrease in Afrotropical forest species richness by the end of the century, in contrast to the 30-50% loss of plant diversity predicted to occur with equivalent warming in the Neotropics. This work reveals that community forecasts are not generalizable across regions, and more representative studies are needed in understudied biomes like the Afrotropics. This study serves as an important counterpoint to work done in the Neotropics by providing contrasting predictions for Afrotropical forests with substantially different ecological, evolutionary, and anthropogenic histories.