A continental system for forecasting bird migration

Abstract

Billions of animals cross the globe each year during seasonal migrations, but efforts to monitor them are hampered by the irregularity and relative unpredictability of their movements. We developed a bird migration forecast system with continental scope by leveraging 23 years of spring observations to learn associations between atmospheric conditions and bird migration intensity. Our models explained up to 81% of variation in migration intensity across the United States at altitudes of 0-3000 m, and performance remained high when forecasting events 24-72 h into the future (68-72% variation explained). We infer that avian migratory movements across the United States frequently exceed 200 million individuals per night and exceed 500 million individuals per night during peak passage. Accurately forecasting bird migration will allow stakeholders to reduce collisions with illuminated buildings, airplanes, and wind turbines, predict movements under climate change scenarios, and engage the public.