Red Knot Stopover Population Size and Migration Ecology at Delaware Bay, USA, 2021

Abstract

Red Knots (Calidris canutus rufa) stop at Delaware Bay during northward migration to feed on eggs of horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus). In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the number of Red Knots found at Delaware Bay dramatically declined from ~50,000 to ~13,000. Horseshoe crabs have been harvested for use as bait in eel and whelk fisheries since at least 1990, and some avian conservation biologists hypothesized that harvest levels in the 1990s prevented sufficient refueling for successful migration to the breeding grounds, nesting, and survival for the remainder of the annual cycle. Since 2013, the harvest of horseshoe crabs in the Delaware Bay region has been managed using an Adaptive Resource Management (ARM) framework. The objective of the ARM framework is to manage sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs while maintaining ecosystem integrity and supporting Red Knot recovery with adequate stopover habitat for Red Knots and other migrating shorebirds. For annual harvest recommendations, the ARM framework requires annual estimates of horseshoe crab population size and the Red Knot stopover population. We conducted a mark-recapture-resight investigation to estimate the passage population of Red Knots at Delaware Bay in 2021. We used a Bayesian analysis of a Jolly-Seber model, which accounts for turnover in the population and the probability of detection during surveys. The 2021 Red Knot mark-resight dataset included a total of 1,591 individual birds that were recorded at least one during mark-resight surveys at Delaware Bay in 2021. The passage population size in 2021 was estimated at 42,271 (95% credible interval: 35,948 - 55,210). Like 2020, the 2021 population estimate is slightly lower than the 2018 and 2019 estimates. The 2021 population size estimate will inform decision making for harvest recommendations in the next management cycle.