If it's real, could it be an eel?

Abstract

Previous studies have estimated the size, mass, and population of hypothetical unknown animals in a large, oligotrophic freshwater loch in Scotland based on biomass and other observational considerations. The eel hypothesis proposes that the anthrozoological phenomenon at Loch Ness can be explained in part by observations of large specimens of European eel (Anguilla anguilla), as these animals are most compatible with morphological, behavioural, and environmental considerations. The present study expands upon the eel hypothesis and related literature by estimating the probability of observing eels at least as large as have been proposed, using catch data from Loch Ness and other freshwater bodies in Europe. Skew normal and generalized extreme value distributions were fitted to eel body length distributions in order to estimate cumulative distribution functions from which probabilities were obtained. The chances of finding a large eel in Loch Ness are around 1 in 50, 000 for a 1-meter specimen, which is reasonable given the lochs fish stock and suggests some sightings of smaller unknown animals may be accounted for by large eels. However, the probability of finding a specimen upwards of 6 meters is essentially zero, therefore eels probably do not account for sightings of larger animals. The existence of exceedingly large eels in the loch is not likely based on purely statistical considerations.