The evolution of contact prediction: Evidence that contact selection in statistical contact prediction is changing

Abstract

Over the last few years, the field of protein structure prediction has been transformed by increasingly-accurate contact prediction software. These methods are based on the detection of coevolutionary relationships between residues from multiple sequence alignments. However, despite speculation, there is little evidence of a link between contact prediction and the physico-chemical interactions which drive amino-acid coevolution. Furthermore, existing protocols predict only a fraction of all protein contacts and it is not clear why some contacts are favoured over others.\n\nUsing a dataset of 863 protein domains, we assessed the physico-chemical interactions of contacts predicted by CCMpred, MetaPSICOV, and DNCON2, as examples of direct coupling analysis, meta-prediction, and deep learning, respectively. To further investigate what sets these predicted contacts apart, we considered correctly-predicted contacts and compared their properties against the protein contacts that were not predicted.\n\nWe found that predicted contacts tend to form more bonds than non-predicted contacts, which suggests these contacts may be more important. Comparing the contacts predicted by each method, we found that metaPSICOV and DNCON2 favour accuracy whereas CCMPred detects contacts with more bonds. This suggests that the push for higher accuracy may lead to a loss of physico-chemically important contacts.\n\nThese results underscore the connection between protein physico-chemistry and the coevolutionary couplings that can be derived from multiple sequence alignments. This relationship is likely to be relevant to protein structure prediction and functional analysis of protein structure and may be key to understanding their utility for different problems in structural biology.\n\nAuthor summaryAccurate contact prediction has allowed scientists to predict protein structures with unprecedented levels of accuracy. The success of contact prediction methods, which are based on inferring correlations between amino acids in protein multiple sequence alignments, has prompted a great deal of work to improve the quality of contact prediction, leading to the development of several different methods for detecting amino acids in proximity.\n\nIn this paper, we investigate the properties of these contact prediction methods. We find that contacts which are predicted differ from the other contacts in the protein, in particular they have more physico-chemical bonds, and the predicted contacts are more strongly conserved than other contacts across protein families. We also compared the properties of different contact prediction methods and found that the characteristics of the predicted sets depend on the prediction method used.\n\nOur results point to a link between physico-chemical bonding interactions and the evolutionary history of proteins, a connection which is reflected in their amino acid sequences.