Informative priors contribute to quantifying the occurrence rate of a rare tree-related microhabitat in a managed forest

Abstract

Tree-related microhabitats (TreMs) are key features for forest biodi-versity, and knowing their accumulation rate is essential to design inte-grative management strategies. Many types of TreMs are associated to large old trees and show slow ontogenical processes. The rarity of such TreMs (particularly in intensively managed forests) hinder the estimation of their occurrence rate along tree growth. Here, we used a continental meta-analysis on TreMs occurrence rate along tree growth to build in-formative priors for a model of trunk-base rot-hole occurrence on oaks within the Gresigne forest, France -- a context where stand management and tree DBH were confounded. We explored whether the use of infor-mative priors could improve the identifiability, the precision of estimates and the predictive abilities of the model. Without prior information, the low variance of tree DBH within management modalities rendered the model poorly identifiable and prevented the detection of an effect of tree DBH per se across the range of explored tree DBH. By contrast, using informative priors contributed to improve the precision of estimates and lead to detecting a positive effect of tree DBH per se. Informative priors did not degrade the model fit and clearly improved predictive abilities on new stands. In particular, while the model without prior information did not predict the occurrence of trunk-base rot-holes significantly better than a purely random guess, the model with informative priors did. Ir-respective of the prior used, models suggested that the high recruitment of trunk-base rot-holes in Gresigne may be a temporary management ef-fect in stands undergoing conversion from coppice-with-standards to high forest through sprout thinning, which will lead to conservation issues for cavicolous saproxylic species when all conversions are complete. Because using informative priors was simple and beneficial in our study, it should be further explored in other local applied contexts to orientate forest man-agement.