Double asymmetric percolation drives a quadruple transition in sexual contact networks

Abstract

Since 2007, ZIKV outbreaks have been occurring around the world. While ZIKV is mainly spread by mosquito vectors, transmission via sex activities enables the virus to spread in regions without mosquito vectors. Modeling the patterns of ZIKV outbreak in these regions remain challenging. We consider age as an asymmetric factor in transmitting ZIKV, in addition to gender as seen in previous literature, and modify the graph structure for better modeling of such patterns. We derived our results by both solving the underlying differential equations and simulation on population graph. Based on a double asymmetric percolation process on sexual contact networks. we discovered a quadruple ZIKV epidemic transition. Moreover, we explored the double asymmetric percolation on scale-free networks. Our work provides more insight into the ZIKV transmission dynamics through sexual contact networks, which may potentially provide better public health control and prevention means in a ZIKV outbreak.