Matching the forecast horizon with the relevant spatial and temporal processes and data sources

Abstract

Most phenomenological, statistical models used to generate ecological forecasts take either a time-series approach, based on long-term data from one location, or a space-for-time approach, based on data describing spatial patterns across environmental gradients. Here we consider how the forecast horizon determines whether more accurate predictions come from the time-series approach, the space-for-time approach, or a combination of the two. We use two simulated case studies to show that forecasts for short and long forecast horizons need to focus on different ecological processes, which are reflected in different kinds of data. In the short-term, dynamics reflect initial conditions and fast processes such as birth and death, and the time-series approach makes the best predictions. In the long-term, dynamics reflect the additional influence of slower processes such as evolutionary and ecological selection, colonization and extinction, which the space-for-time approach can effectively capture. At intermediate time-scales, a weighted average of the two approaches shows promise. However, making this weighted model operational will require new research to predict the rate at which slow processes begin to influence dynamics.