Population size estimation when multiple samples carrying the risk of misidentification are taken within the same capture occasion from the same individual

Abstract

Although non-invasive sampling is increasingly used in capture-recapture (CR) monitoring, it carries a risk of misidentification that, if ignored, causes an overestimation of population size. Models that deal with misidentification have been proposed. However, these models assume that only one sample can be collected per individual at one occasion. This is not true for several monitoring programs based on DNA, for example for those that extract the DNA from faecal samples. The models do not take repeated observations into account, leading to biased estimates. In this paper, we develop an approach that extends the latent multinomial model (LMM) of Link et al., 2010 using a Poisson distribution to model the number of samplings of the same individual on a given occasion. We then conduct simulations to test how our new model performs. As an illustration, we applied the new Poisson model to a collection of Eurasian otter faeces (Lampa et al., 2015). Our model yields unbiased estimates of population size when the expected number of samples per individual ({lambda}) is sufficiently high: simulations with{lambda} [≥] 0.36 and five capture occasions or with{lambda} [≥] 0.23 and seven or more occasions. In contrast, when{lambda} = 0.11 (corresponding to about 42%, 53% and 62% of the individuals being detected with respectively 5, 7 and 9 occasions), the population size is consistently underestimated. Applying the model to the otter dataset confirms the presence of misidentifications, consistent with the authors expectations. Our findings indicate that repeated observations can be modelled without bias. The application on otters shows that our model is necessary to accurately estimate population size in presence of misidentification and repeated observations.