Accuracy of mutual predictions of plant and microbe communities varies along a successional gradient in an alpine glacier forefield

Abstract

O_LIDue to climate warming, recently deglaciated glacier forefields create virtually uninhabited substrates waiting for initial colonization of bacteria, fungi and plants and serve as an ideal ecosystem for studying transformations in community composition and diversity over time and the interactions between taxonomic groups. C_LIO_LIIn this study, we investigated the composition and diversity of bacteria, and fungi, plants and environmental factors (pH, temperature, plot age and soil nutrients) along a 1.5km glacier forefield. We used random forest analysis to detect how well the composition and diversity of taxonomic groups and environmental factors can be mutually predicted. C_LIO_LICommunity composition and diversity of taxonomic groups predicted each other more accurately than environmental factors predicted the taxonomic groups; within the taxonomic groups bacteria and fungi predicted each other best and the taxas composition was better predicted than diversity indices. Additionally, accuracy of prediction among taxonomic groups and environmental factors considerably varied along the successional gradient. C_LIO_LIAlthough our results are no direct indication of interactions between the taxa investigated and the environmental conditions, the accurate predictions among bacteria, fungi, and plants do provide insights into the concerted community assembly of different taxa in response to changing environments along a successional gradient. C_LI