Identifying gaps between scientific and local knowledge in climate change adaptation for northern European agriculture

Abstract

Climate change impacts agriculture in complex and regionally specific ways. In temperate regions such as southern Sweden, it presents both opportunities, such as longer growing seasons, and challenges, including increased drought and heat stress. This study examined how Swedish agriculture is adapting to climate change, using the extreme 2018 drought and heatwave as a critical case to explore both immediate responses and longer-term preparedness in crop production systems. We compared scientific and local knowledge through a systematic scoping review of peer-reviewed literature from northern Europe, a workshop with project scientists, and a participatory workshop with farmers. The study aimed to identify gaps between scientific and local understandings of climate change adaptation, particularly in how extreme events influence decision-making and preparedness. Using a transdisciplinary, problem-feeding approach, we compared how farmers and scientists conceptualise crisis response and long-term adaptation, employing influence diagrams to visualise their understandings. Our review found that much scientific work focuses on short-term coping strategies, such as feed substitution or altered irrigation, while longer-term adaptation remains underexplored. In contrast, farmers emphasized context specific actions grounded in their farm operations, highlighting socio-economic and administrative constraints, whereas scientists tended to propose generalisable technology-oriented strategies. These differences underscore the importance of integrating both experiential and scientific knowledge to co-develop more effective adaptation responses. The study lays the foundation for a targeted, large-scale survey to explore farmer motivations, perceptions of risk and opportunity, and adaptive capacities across diverse contexts. Our findings highlight the need to move beyond reactive measures and investigate anticipatory strategies that foster and enable adaptive capacity. Here we demonstrate that supporting long-term adaptation in agriculture will require inclusive, evidence-based approaches that incorporate perspectives from farmers, advisors, scientists, and public authorities alike.