Quantifying the Human Cost of Global Warming

Abstract

The costs of climate change are often estimated in monetary terms1,2 but this raises ethical issues3. Here we express them in terms of numbers of people left outside the human climate niche4 - defined as the historically highly-conserved distribution of relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature (MAT). We show that climate change has already put [~]8% of people (>500 million) outside this niche. By end-of-century (2080-2100), current policies leading to around 2.7 {degrees}C global warming5-9 could leave one third (21-42% or 2-4 billion) of a future 9.5 billion population outside the niche. Limiting global warming to 1.5 {degrees}C could halve this exposure, reducing it by [~]1.5 billion people. For the two countries with the most people affected - India and Nigeria - reducing global warming from 2.7 to 1.5 {degrees}C results in a >6-fold decrease in the population exposed to unprecedented temperatures, MAT [≥]29 {degrees}C. The lifetime emissions of [~]3.5 global average citizens today (or [~]1.2 average US citizens) expose 1 future person to MAT [≥]29 {degrees}C by end-of-century. That person comes from a place where emissions today are around half of the global average. These results highlight the need for more decisive policy action to limit the human costs and inequities of climate change.