Cross Potential Selection for Multiple Traits Considering the Progeny Distribution of Future Inbred Lines in Plant Breeding Programs

Abstract

In plant breeding, it is often necessary to improve a target trait while maintaining other essential traits within desirable ranges. When genetic relationships exist among these traits, improvements in the target trait may lead to undesirable changes in essential traits, complicating cross selections. In such cases, it is critical to select cross-pairs that are expected to produce progeny that satisfy the requirements for all traits. The progeny distribution of each crossing pair can be predicted using the estimated genotypic values and genetic (co)variances of the target and essential traits. By utilizing this distribution, the probability of generating progeny that satisfy predefined trait requirements can be evaluated, allowing a direct comparison of alternative crosses. In this study, we developed Cross Potential Selection for Multiple Traits (CPS-MT), a breeding strategy designed to improve a target trait while maintaining one or more essential traits within desirable ranges. CPS-MT extends the original Cross Potential Selection (CPS) framework to explicitly handle trade-offs between traits under genetic correlations. We evaluated the performance of CPS-MT through simulations involving four types of genetic relationships and two genetic causal factors between traits, resulting in seven scenarios. Across all scenarios, CPS-MT consistently improved the likelihood of obtaining desirable progeny, indicating that CPS-MT provides a practical and effective framework for cross selection under multi-trait constraints in breeding programs. Article SummaryThis study developed Cross Potential Selection for Multiple Traits (CPS-MT), a new breeding strategy designed to improve a target trait while maintaining one or more essential traits within desirable ranges. CPS-MT evaluates crossing pairs by predicting progeny distributions based on estimated genotypic values and genetic covariances, enabling direct comparison of alternative crosses under multi-trait constraints. Through simulations incorporating four types of genetic relationships and two causal factors (seven scenarios), CPS-MT consistently increased the likelihood of obtaining progeny that satisfied the predefined trait requirement. These results indicate that CPS-MT provides a practical, robust framework for target trait improvement under trait constraints.