Within and among-population variation in vital rates and population dynamics in a variable environment

Abstract

Understanding the causes of within-and among-population differences in vital rates, life histories, and population dynamics is a central topic in ecology. To understand how within-and among-population variation emerges, we need long-term studies that include episodic events and contrasting environmental conditions, data to characterize individual and shared variation, and statistical models that can tease apart population-, shared-, and individual contribution to the observed variation.\n\nWe used long-term tag-recapture data and novel statistical and modeling techniques to investigate and estimate within-and among-population differences in vital rates, life histories and population dynamics of marble trout Salmo marmoratus, a endemic freshwater salmonid with a narrow range. Only ten populations of pure marble trout persist in headwaters of Alpine rivers in western Slovenia. Marble trout populations are also threatened by floods and landslides, which have caused the extinction of two populations in recent years. We estimated and determined causes of variation in growth, survival, and recruitment both within and among populations, and evaluated trade-offs between them. Specifically, we estimated the responses of these traits to variation in water temperature, density, sex, early life conditions, and the occurrence of extreme climatic events (e.g., flash floods and debris flows).\n\nWe found that the effects of population density on traits were mostly limited to the early stages of life and that individual growth trajectories were established early in life. We found no clear effects of water temperature on survival and recruitment. Population density varied over time, with flash floods and debris flows causing massive mortalities and threatening population persistence. Apart from flood events, variation in population density within streams was largely determined by variation in recruitment, with survival of older fish being relatively constant over time within populations, but substantially different among populations. Marble trout show a fast-to-slow continuum of life histories, with slow growth associated with higher survival at the population level, possibly determined by food conditions and age at maturity.\n\nOur work provides unprecedented insight into the causes of variation in vital rates, life histories, and population dynamics in an endemic species that is teetering on the edge of extinction.