Multimodal disease transmission as a limiting factor for the spatial extent of a host plant

Abstract

Theoretical models suggest that infectious diseases could play a substantial role in determining species ranges, but few studies have collected the empirical data required to test this hypothesis. Pathogens that sterilize their hosts or spread through frequency-dependent transmission could have especially strong effects on the limits of species distributions because sterilized hosts can serve as long-lived disease reservoirs and frequency-dependent transmission mechanisms are effective even at very low population densities. We collected spatial disease prevalence data and population abundance data for alpine carnations infected by the sterilizing pathogen M. violaceum, a disease that is spread through both frequency-dependent (vector-borne) and density-dependent (aerial spore transmission) mechanisms. Our 13-year study reveals rapid declines in population abundance without a compensatory decrease in disease prevalence. We apply a stochastic, spatial model of disease spread that accommodates spatial habitat heterogeneity to investigate how the population dynamics depend on multimodal (frequency-dependent and density-dependent) transmission. We found that the observed rate of population decline can be readily explained by multimodal transmission, but is unlikely to be explained by either frequency-dependent or density-dependent mechanisms alone. Multimodal disease transmission rates high enough to explain the observed decline predicted that eventual local extinction of the host species is highly likely. Our results add to a growing body of literature showing how multimodal transmission can constrain species distributions in nature. Open ResearchAll scripts associated with the analyses in this manuscript, as well as the data we collected, are available at https://github.com/uricchio/antherSmutDis.