Message in a Bottle: Archived DNA Reveals Marine Heatwave-Associated Shifts in Fish Assemblages

Abstract

Marine heatwaves can drive large-scale shifts in marine ecosystems but studying their impacts on whole species assemblages can be difficult. Here, we leverage the taxonomic breadth and resolution of DNA sequences derived from environmental DNA (eDNA) in the ethanol of a set of 23-year longitudinal ichthyoplankton samples, combining these with microscopy-derived ichthyoplankton identification to yield higher-resolution, species-specific quantitative abundance estimates of fish assemblages in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem during and after the 2014-16 Pacific marine heatwave. This integrated dataset reveals patterns of tropicalization with increases in southern, mesopelagic species and associated declines in important temperate fisheries targets (e.g., North Pacific Hake (Merluccius productus) and Pacific Sardine (Sardinops sagax)). We observed novel assemblages of southern, mesopelagic fishes and temperate species (e.g., Northern Anchovy, Engraulis mordax) even after the return to average water temperatures. Our innovative preservative derived eDNA metabarcoding and quantitative modeling approaches open the door to reconstructing the historical dynamics of assemblages from modern and archived samples worldwide. SummaryNovel quantitative abundance estimates from archived DNA reveals marine heatwave-associated shifts in fish assemblages.