End-of-outbreak determination under seasonal transmission
William S. Hart, Cathal Mills, Mattia Manica, Francesco Menegale, Martina Spaziante, Francesco Vairo, Piero Poletti, Giorgio Guzzetta, Robin N. Thompson
This study develops a seasonal transmission model to determine when it is safe to relax interventions at the end of an outbreak, showing that incorporating seasonality allows for earlier intervention relaxation.
bioRxiv · Aug 4, 2026 · PreprintEcology