Explainable Active Learning Framework for Ligand BindingAffinity Prediction

Abstract

Active learning (AL) prioritises which compounds to measure next for protein-ligand affinity when assay or simulation budgets are limited. We present an explainable AL framework built on Gaussian process regression and assess how molecular representations, covariance kernels, and acquisition policies affect enrichment across four drug-relevant targets. Using recall of top active compounds, we find that dataset identity--the targets chemical landscape--sets the performance ceiling, while method choices modulate outcomes rather than overturn them. Fingerprints with simple Gaussian process kernels provide robust, low-variance enrichment, whereas learned embeddings with non-linear kernels can reach higher peaks but with greater variability. Uncertainty-guided acquisition consistently outperforms random selection, yet no single policy is universally optimal; the best choice follows structure-activity relationship (SAR) complexity. To enhance interpretability beyond black-box selection, we integrate SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to link high-impact fingerprint bits to chemically meaningful fragments across AL cycles, illustrating how the models attention progressively concentrates on SAR-relevant motifs.