On the synchronized failure of global crop production

Abstract

Multiple breadbasket failure is a risk to global food security. However, there are no global analyses that have assessed if global food production has actually tended towards synchronized failure historically. We show that synchronization in production for major commodities such as maize and soy has declined in recent decades, but that increased synchrony, when present, has had marked destabilizing effects. Under the hypothetical case of a synchronized failure event, we estimate simultaneous global production losses for rice, wheat, soy and maize between -18% and -36%. Our results show that maintaining asynchrony in the food system and mitigating instability through food storage in good years, both require a central place in discussions of future food demand under mean climate change, population growth and consumption trends.