Correlated seed failure as an environmental veto to synchronize reproduction of masting plants

Highly variable, synchronized seed production, called masting, is a widespread reproductive strategy in plants. Resource dynamics, pollination success, and, as described here, environmental veto, are possible proximate mechanisms of masting. We extended the resource budget model of masting with correlated and uncorrelated reproductive failure, and ran this model across its parameters space. Next, we parametrized the model based on a 16-year seed production data for red (Quercus rubra) and white (Q. alba) oaks. Simulations showed that resource dynamics and reproduction failure produce masting even in the absence of pollen coupling. In concordance, in both species, among-year variation in resource gain and correlated reproductive failure were necessary and sufficient to produce masting. Environmental variation is a form of reproduction failure caused by environmental veto that may drive large-scale synchronization without density-dependent pollen limitation. Reproductive-inhibiting weather events are prevalent in ecosystems, suggesting that these described mechanisms likely operate in many masting systems.