Will they survive? Alarming circumstances of Asiatic cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) in Iran's drylands

The Asiatic cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus), once widespread across West, South, and Central Asia, now survives only in Iran, where its population has declined to the brink of extinction. The current study synthesized 12 years (2012-2024) of monitoring data, including systematic, extensive camera trap surveys across 27 distinct sampling sessions in eight reserves (69,089 trap nights) supplemented by published records of cheetah occurrences on social media to assess the demographic and spatial patterns of this critically endangered subspecies. Our analysis indicates that a total of 24 adult Asiatic cheetahs were identified across the Northern and Southern Landscapes. However, no evidence of reproduction or new individual presence was obtained in the Southern Landscape for over a decade. Meanwhile, the Northern Landscape hosts the remaining population, likely fewer than 30 individuals. Between 2020 and 2024, at least 31 cubs were born in the northern population from six females. However, limited evidence of successful recruitment suggests minimal contribution to population recovery, as only 47.3% of monitored cubs survived beyond their first year. Asiatic cheetahs exhibit extensive mobility across the arid Northern Landscape, frequently traversing unprotected communal lands and a major highway, which increases their vulnerability. While camera trap data have proven effective for individual identification, they are limited in tracking fine-scale movement, emphasizing the urgent need for satellite telemetry. Interventions such as roadside fencing and wildlife underpasses along highways are essential to reduce mortality. These efforts should be complemented by broader conservation measures, including habitat protection and restoration, community-based management of unprotected lands, and enhanced anti-trafficking enforcement. Genetic concerns, especially low effective population size and inbreeding, pose additional threats to viability.