Network Occlusion Sensitivity Analysis Identifies Regional Contributions to Brain Age Prediction

Abstract

Deep learning frameworks utilizing convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have frequently been used for brain age prediction and have achieved outstanding performance. Nevertheless, deep learning remains a black box as it is hard to interpret which brain parts contribute significantly to the predictions. To tackle this challenge, we first trained a lightweight, fully CNN model for brain age estimation on a large sample data set (N = 3054, age range = [8,80 years]) and tested it on an independent data set (N = 555, mean absolute error (MAE) = 4.45 years, r = 0.96). We then developed an interpretable scheme combining network occlusion sensitivity analysis (NOSA) with a fine-grained human brain atlas to uncover the learned invariance of the model. Our findings show that the dorsolateral, dorsomedial frontal cortex, anterior cingulate cortex, and thalamus had the highest contributions to age prediction across the lifespan. More interestingly, we observed that different regions showed divergent patterns in their predictions for specific age groups and that the bilateral hemispheres contributed differently to the predictions. Regions in the frontal lobe were essential predictors in both the developmental and aging stages with the thalamus remaining relatively stable and saliently correlated with other regional changes throughout the lifespan. The lateral and medial temporal brain regions gradually became involved during the aging phase. At the network level, the frontoparietal and the default mode networks show an inverted U-shape contribution from the developmental to the aging stages. The framework could identify regional contributions to the brain age prediction model, which could help increase the model interpretability when serving as an aging biomarker.