Inferring somatic mutation dynamics from genomic variation across branches within long-lived tropical trees

Trees accumulate somatic mutations throughout their long lifespan, resulting in genetic mosaicism among branches. While recent genomic studies quantified these mutations, they were largely limited to describing static patterns of variation. In this study, we developed a mathematical model to infer the dynamic processes of somatic mutation accumulation from snapshot genomic data obtained from four tropical trees (Dipterocarpaceae), which dominate tropical rain forests in Southeast Asia. Our model focus on genetic differences between shoot apical meristems (SAMs) at branch tips and explicitly incorporate stem cell dynamics within SAMs during shoot elongation and branching, enabling us to quantify somatic genetic drift arising from stem cell lineage replacement. By comparing model predictions with empirical data from Dipterocarpaceae trees, we estimated key parameters governing stem cell dynamics and somatic mutation rates. Our results indicate that both shoot elongation and branching involve replacement of stem cell lineages, leading to a moderate degree of somatic genetic drift. Accounting for stem cell dynamics resulted in slightly lower mutation rate estimates than previous approaches that ignored these processes. Using the estimated parameters, we further performed stochastic simulations to predict patterns of somatic mutations, including features not directly observed in the sampled trees, such as occasional deviations of somatic mutation phylogenies from physical architecture. Together, our modeling framework provides insights into how genetic mosaicism is shaped within tropical trees and reveals the stem cell dynamics underlying their long-term growth and accumulation of somatic mutations. (236 words) Highlights- We built mathematical models to predict the genetic differences between branch tips by somatic mutations. - The model considers the varying dynamics of stem cells in shoot meristem during shoot elongation and branching. - We compared the model prediction with empirical data from tropical trees, Dipterocarpaceae, and estimated the dynamics of stem cells and mutation rate. - Somatic mutation dynamics were shaped by somatic genetic drift arising from stem cell lineage replacement during shoot elongation and branching. - Accounting for stem cell dynamics led to slightly smaller estimates of mutation rates compared with previous estimates that ignored the dynamics. - Our models offer insights into how genetic variability is shaped in the tropical trees and the stem cell dynamics underlying their long-term growth.