Predicting the timing of ecological phenomena across regions using citizen science data

Abstract

Spatial predictions of intra-annual ecological variation enhance ecological understanding and inform decision-making. Unfortunately, it is often challenging to use statistical or machine learning techniques to make such predictions, due to the scarcity of systematic, long-term observational data. Conversely, opportunistic time-stamped observation records, supported by highly informative data such as photographs, are increasingly available for diverse ecological phenomena in many regions. However, a general framework for predicting such phenomena using opportunistic data remains elusive. Here, we introduce a novel framework that leverages the concept of relative phenological niche to model observation records as a sample of temporal environmental conditions in which the represented ecological phenomenon occurs. We demonstrate its application using two distinct, management-relevant, ecological events: the emergence of the adult stage of the invasive Japanese beetle (Popillia japonica), and of fruiting bodies of the winter chanterelle mushroom (Craterellus tubaeformis). The framework accounts for spatial and temporal biases in observation data, and it contrasts the temporal environmental conditions (e.g., in temperature, precipitation, wind speed, etc.) associated with the observation of these events to those available in their occurrence locations. To discriminate between the two sets of conditions, we employ machine-learning algorithms (boosted regression trees and random forests). The proposed approach can accurately predict the temporal dynamics of ecological events across large geographical scales. Specifically, it successfully predicted the intra-annual timing of occurrence of adult Japanese beetles and of winter chanterelle mushrooms across Europe and North America. We further validate the approach by successfully predicting the timing of occurrence of adult Japanese beetles in Northern Italy, a recent hotspot of invasion in continental Europe, and the winter chanterelle mushroom in Denmark, a country with a high number of records of this mushroom. These results were also largely insensitive to temporal bias in recording effort. Our results highlight the potential of opportunistic observation data to predict the temporal variation of a wide range of ecological phenomena in near real-time. Furthermore, the conceptual and methodological framework is intuitive and easily applicable for the large number of ecologists already using machine-learning and statistical-based predictive approaches.